Ministerial Casualties - 16 Dec, 2003 Dear Subscribers & Friends
On the 5 July 2003, after the massive 1 July protest, this eNewsletter noted that the Tung Chee-hwa Administration had in effect fallen but there is no built-in replacement mechanism under the current political system. Soon after the protest, two ministers resigned. Events in recent weeks show that the cabinet continues to be besieged by serious governance problems. There could well be more ministerial casualties although finding replacements will also be extremely difficult.
A. Ministerial Casualties … so far
Hong Kong’s ministerial system was put in place on 1 July 2002 by Chief Executive CH Tung (CE) in the hope that it would improve governance. Since then, there have been numerous casualties already:
1. Regina Ip - The former Secretary for Security stepped down after the 1 July protest against the proposed Article 23 national security legislation where more than 500,000 people took to the streets.
2. Antony Leung - The former Financial Secretary stepped down after 1 July as a consequence of his unpopularity after the “Lexus-gate” affair. He had been investigated by the ICAC for misconduct in public office. The DPP decided yesterday that there was insufficient evidence to secure a conviction in court and the case has been dropped.
3. James Tien - The former minister without portfolio, and chairman of the Liberal Party, resigned as a consequence of the 1 July protest. The CE appointed Selina Chow of the same party as a replacement.
B. More casualties yet to come?
1. Patrick Ho - The Secretary for Home Affairs is set for an uncomfortable time as LegCo continues to pursue what happened at a 5 November meeting during which a discussion took place including the drafting of a letter, said to contain untrue statements against the former Equal Opportunities Commissioner (Anna Wu), which has been alleged to be part of a “smear” campaign against her. Ho maintained that he stepped out of the room when the letter was drafted and did not know the content but another person present at the meeting said Ho was present. The question is whether the minister was part of constructing a smear campaign - an action unbefitting of a minister.
2. Andrew Liao - Minister without portfolio and a barrister who was present at the abovementioned meeting relating to the EOC. Thus, if it is shown that he was part of a smear campaign, his integrity will be in tatters as well.
3. Arthur Li - The Secretary for Education and Manpower is already unpopular with the education sector. While there can be different views about his policies and even his personal style, the allegation that he played electronic games on his PDA on 1 December at a LegCo hearing on education funding has ignited opposition against him. The allegation was made by a student who said he saw the minister play games. Li denied the allegation.
4. Tsang Yok-sing - Minister without portfolio and former chairman of the DAB is unlikely to step down (the DAB is not pressing for it) even though he no longer heads the biggest pro-government party in the cabinet. He resigned as chairman after his party did badly at the District Council Election on 27 November (see eNewsletter 3/12/03). Tsang’s case may be described as a “near casualty”.
C. Analysis
1. Guilty by association: A cabinet appointment is seen as a poisoned chalice. Few people appear to want to associate with the besieged Tung cabinet. The CE admitted on 4 December that in appointing the new Director of Audit (one of the key principal officials under the Basic Law) that the eventual appointee, Benjamin Tang - a long-time civil servant - was not his first choice (poor Tang). In other words, others approached did not want the job.
2. Few credible possibilities: If ministers ran into very deep water and start to seriously flounder, it would be extremely hard for the CE to find replacements who have both the ability and public credibility to take over.
3. Quiet on the front: Other ministers have gone quiet - time to stay out of sight perhaps. Under such inauspicious circumstances, cabinet capacity and enthusiasm to work is likely to continue to be weak with output remaining low. The Secretary for Constitutional Affairs has already admitted that he is late in producing a political reform consultation package as promised post 1 July for the year’s end.
4. 7 January 2004: The CE gives his 2004 Policy Address. 2003 was a troublesome year for the CE - what will he say? The eNewsletter wishes you a Happy Holiday Season and goes on vacation. The next issue will be on 7 January analyzing the Policy Address.
CHRISTINE LOH
Civic Exchange - HK’s Independent Think Tank
www.civic-exchange.org