New Social Order - 1 Oct, 2004 Dear Subscribers & Friends
Beijing finally said it. It has adopted “new approaches” to managing Hong Kong affairs because there is a “new social order” to cope with. The democratic camp had better be prepared.
Expect to see Beijing shape this “new social order”, as well as define what its version of democracy will mean for Hong Kong as discussion heats up over the next 12 months on the methods for selecting of the chief executive in 2007 and the next election in 2008. What happens is important as it represents leadership thinking on the principles guiding eventual reform on the mainland.
A. CCP new directive
1. Post-election policy: At the CCP 4th plenum of its 16th central committee from 16-19/9, the party endorsed new approaches for managing Hong Kong and Macau affairs.
2. CCP report: The report noted that maintaining prosperity and stability was a “brand new subject of the party’s governance under new circumstances”, and that there was a need “to improve the city’s governance capability”. A Xinhua news release on 26/9 emphasized the need to raise the “standard of governance”.
3. Reasoning: Zhu Yucheng, head of the State Council’s Institute on HK&M Affairs said that the decision to adopt new approaches under the “one country, two systems” principle was to “achieve new development”, which would take into account Hong Kong’s new social order” and “how we can do a better job under this new social order”.
4. Elaboration: While Zhu did not explain exactly what was meant by “new approaches” and “new social order”, he did say: “We need to go deep into all sectors of society, listen to different opinions and understand different situations”. The Xinhua news release also noted that the CCP would continue to “unite” people from different sectors of society and “open a new chapter” in implementing “one country, two systems”.
B. What it means … analysis of Beijing’s new plan
1. Change recognised: Previous assumptions based on an apolitical, colonial society are no long valid. Furthermore, with the mainland opening up, Hong Kong’s economy is going through restructuring and there are both winners and losers, with the latter experiencing difficulties.
2. Need to widen and deepen penetration: Traditional “united front” tactics are no longer enough as the middle class and younger generation have not been sufficiently engaged and new ways to connect with them are needed.
3. Governance deficit: There is a governance problem in Hong Kong under the Tung administration, which can no longer be relied upon to get things right on its own.
4. Justification: The successful implementation of “one country, two systems” requires active management rather than a hands off approach otherwise things could get out of control.
5. Success so far: LegCo’s election results were seen as successful to minimize pro-democracy gains, adding confidence to endorsing the new plan.
C. Things to watch out for …
1. Define “democracy”: Beijing is likely to start to find ways to articulate its view of what “democracy” means. This will be a form of limited democracy that some may describe as the Singapore model.
2. Produce “prosperity”: Since the people want prosperity and development, Beijing sees itself as in a position to provide economic goodies to enhance the HKSAR government’s performance.
3. Widen “consultation”: Mainland officials will connect with more people in a more open way to show Beijing wants to listen, including to more legislators, professionals and groups.
4. Secure “politics”: Identify and prepare trusted people and moderates to participate in politics, continue to help the DAB to be the party for the grassroots, see how the Liberal Party gets along but be prepared to support the creation of a new party to fill the middle class vacuum; and have a plan ready for the 2008 LegCo election. It is also imperative to sort out the governing team (political appointees) for the next chief executive.
5. Be “soft and tough”: Don’t make life difficult for Tung on things like Article 23 if the time is not right but let it be known that if “stability” is threatened, mainland law can be imposed. This is in fact what has happened already.
CHRISTINE LOH
Civic Exchange - Hong Kong’s independent think tank
www.civic-exchange.org