Election Series XIV - 9 Sep, 2004

Countdown to Decision - Our Predictions
Plus Guangguan’s press conference about Alex Ho

Our predictions below are based on surveys we commissioned the Hong Kong Transition Project to carry out. We will do our election round-up on the 13th on the results and their implications for the new legislature.


A. Calculating GC Turnout … survey 31/8-5/9

1. Plan to vote?: 91% of respondents said yes. This shows voting has become a social norm in Hong Kong.

2. How strong is your commitment?: 67% said they would definitely vote and 15% said probably.

3. In constituencies: Re: commitment to vote - (definitely) HKI 67%; KE 66%; KW 71%; NTE 69%; NTW 64%.

4. Candidates already selected: HKI 53%; KE 58%; KW 57%; NTE 53%; NTW 47%.

5. Turnout estimate: Previous highest 53% (1998) most likely will be broken - and don’t be surprised if turnout goes as high as 55%-56%, and may be even 58% at the most optimistic.

6. What drives voters to vote in the 2004 election?: (a) Support/oppose democracy camp; (b) satisfaction/dissatisfaction with candidates/parties’ performance; (c) support/oppose political reform.

B. GC Seats … pro-government vs. pro-democracy camps

1. By Camps: PG vs. PD (seats)
Pro-government (LP/HKPA/DAB/FTU/Independent): 9-10.
Pro-democracy (DP/ADPL/Frontier/CTU/Independents): 20-21.

2. By Votes: PG vs. PD (34.2%:65.8%)
HKI 43:57; KE 35:65; KW 22:78; NTE39:61; NTW 32:68.

C. FC Seats … hard to know (5-7?)

With little transparency in the process, it is hard to know how candidates are doing. The pro-democracy camp had 5 seats in the last election so it is safe to assume they can have 5 seats this time but it is hard to predict if they can win many more.

D. Dongguan’s press conference … fascinating

1. Three women: Dongguan authorities said Ho admitted to having sex with 3 women on the mainland from 2001-2004. Three names were disclosed. All confessed to having sex with Ho.

2. What about the women in question?: However, the name of the alleged prostitute who was supposed to have been found together with Ho was not given.

3. Amazing memory: Ho must have an amazing memory to remember the names of the three women whose services he supposedly used between 2001 and 2004. Even more amazingly, the women remembered the name of one man they had sex with over this period to enable the authorities to locate them to get their confessions!

CHRISTINE LOH
Civic Exchange - HK’s independent think tank
www.civic-exchange.org