Election Series XVI - 14 Sep, 2004

For those of you who like numbers…

2nd Analysis [this is the final report to complete this series]


A. Where the people’s choice matter … GCs

1. Turnout: Out of 3.207 million registered voters, a total of 1,784 million voted representing a turnout of 55.6%, the highest both in numbers and percentage in Hong Kong’s history.

2. HK Island - Voters 354,095 (turnout 57.63%) representing a ratio of approx 60.5% in favour of the pro-democracy camp PDC vs. 39% in favour of the pro-government camp (PGC). The term PGC relates to voting tendency on political reform issues and not every issue.

3. Kowloon East - Voters 293,702 (56.41%); 63% PDC vs. 37% PGC.

4. Kowloon West - Voters 227,694 (53.48%); PDC 73.5% PDC vs. 26.5% PGC.

5. New Territories East - Voters 431,007 (56.42%); PDC 58% vs. 42% PGC.

6. New Territories West - Voters 463,413 (53.48%); 60% PDC vs. 37% PGC, not counting fringe votes.

B. Where some voters have a 2nd vote … FCs

1. Turnout: Out of 192,374 registered voters, 134,935 voted (turnout 70.14%)

2. Constituencies (10) with only human voters:

(a) Education (teachers): Registered Voters 77,696; 72.43% turnout PDC
(b) Health Services (nurses): 35,442; 6.16% PGC
(c) Accountancy: 17,500; 70.11% PDC
(d) Social Welfare (social workers): 10,405; 79.36% PDC
(e) Medical (doctors/dentists): 9,356; 69.87% PDC
(f) Engineering: 7,252; (75.88% PGC)
(g) Architecture, Surveying and Planning: 5,116; 79.36% PGC
(h) Legal: 5,073; 72.99% PDC
(i) District Councils: 462; 99.57% PGC
(j) Heung Yee Kuk: 149 uncontested PGC

3. Constituencies (10 * note there are 3 labour seats) with only corporate voters:

(a) Commercial 1st (HKGCC): 1,077 uncontested PGC
(b) Industrial 2nd (CMA): 499 uncontested PGC
(c) Tourism: 964; 77.49% PDC
(d) Finance (banks): 154 uncontested PGC
(e) Labour ( x 3 unions): 519; 90.37% PGC
(f) Insurance: 161 uncontested PGC
(g) Transport: 182 uncontested PGC
(h) Agriculture & Fisheries: 162 uncontested PGC

4. Constituencies (10) with human and corporate voters:

(a) Textile & Garments: 3,894; 62.38% PGC
(b) Catering: 7,786; 52.29% PGC
(c) Wholesale & Retail: 4,063; 63.11% PGC
(d) Information Technology: 4,571; 82.45% PDC
(e) Import & Export: 1,385 uncontested PGC
(f) Commercial 2nd (CGCC): 1,835 uncontested PGC
(g) Sports, Arts, Culture and Publication: 1,631; 75.11% PGC
(h) Industrial 1st (FHKI): uncontested PGC
(i) Real Estate & Construction: 757 uncontested PGC
(j) Financial Services: 644; 84.94% (PGC)

5. PDC vs. PGC:

(a) By Camp: GC - PDC 18 seats vs. PGC 12 seats; FC PDA 6 vs. PGC 24.
(b) By Parties/Groups:

DAB 12
Liberal Party 10
Democratic Party 9
‘Barristers’ group 4
Frontier + PDC unionists 4
ADPL 1

C. Analysis - LegCo 2004-2008

1. Beijing’s perspective: In the short term, Beijing has nothing to worry about. In the medium term, Beijing needs to ensure Hong Kong’s electoral system is not going to be perceived as so unfair as to be a cause for instability.

Despite getting 58% of the total votes in the GC and more than 50% of the votes in the FCs, the PDC only got 25 seats in total and thus cannot pose an immediate headache for Beijing. With the PGC holding the majority of the seats via the FCs, pro-democracy initiatives can be quashed. The more comfortable Beijing feels about the results, the more it is likely to consider how to start some kind of dialogue with LegCo that includes the PDC as part of its strategy is to win hearts and minds in Hong Kong on the pace and direction of political reform. The high ratio of votes in favour of the PDC provides a clear message that Hong Kong people want universal suffrage to determine who should govern.

2.HKSAR Government’s perspective: It must change its behaviour.

It must not to use its majority via the FCs to push through controversial/unpopular policies/legislation, like it tried to do with the Article 23 national security legislation now that there is a slightly larger PDC majority, whose general orientation is to play a tougher scrutiny role of the executive. Government consultation processes need to be genuine. Clinging to its FC-based majority is only going to usher in an even earlier demise of what is already a system that is fraying at the edges.

3. HK Politicians: Those who won should not delude themselves into believing that voters think their parties and groups are so good. They need to use the next 4 years to become very much better to survive, especially if they want to form the government in the future.

Voters voted for the PDC because they want systemic reform, which includes the parties pulling up their socks. The PDC have a number of charismatic individuals but the various PDC parties and groups are on the whole far from impressive in their policies, organization and management. The PGC suffers from being too closely associated with an unpopular executive and its decisions. It will need to act more independently to have a chance to grow. Despite having good resources, the PGC has no tradition in thinking through policies. If it wants to present itself as electable for government, it too has to improve greatly.

4. HK Parties: The DAB has taken over from the DP as the single largest party in LegCo, thus becoming the most important PGC entity together with the LP. The LP is rewarded for taking an important step towards direct election. The DP is penalized for lacklustre performance over the last term when there are other PDC candidates to vote for and their poor electoral strategy. The ‘barristers’ group, which may become a new political force, still needs to prove itself that it can strategize and organize politically rather than depend on personal charisma.

5. HK People: What an irrepressible bunch! Despite being told by Beijing that universal suffrage cannot be achieved in 2007-08, they still told the world they wanted democracy sooner rather than later.

CHRISTINE LOH
Civic Exchange - HK’s independent think tank
www.civic-exchange.org