Journey North - 25 Sep, 2004
Winning Hearts and Minds in Hong KongDear Subscribers & Friends
Beijing is moving quickly. With the LegCo election settled and even before the term formally begins, some pro-democracy legislators are going to Beijing for the 1 October national day celebration.
This is an important event that can set the tone for future encounters between the pro-democracy camp (PDC) and Beijing (BJ); and it provides an early opportunity for Hong Kong to see who among the PDC have the potentials to be future leaders.
A. Beijing’s plan to win hearts and minds
1. Post-rally reality: BJ understands better now what Hong Kong people desire above all else post July rallies in 2003 and 2004. They want their voices to be heard and for there to be dialogue between BJ and the PDC.
2. Election results: Irrespective of the number of seats the PDC got, the majority of voters endorsed PDC candidates in an election where the single most important issue was the pace of democratic reform.
3. BJ’s position of strength: BJ is comfortable to start a dialogue with the PDC because it has created a position for itself which it sees to be a position of strength. BJ has already used the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress to rule out universal suffrage in 2007/08; the election result has only given the PDC 25 seats; and its allies - the DAB and Liberal Party, are the largest blocks in LegCo.
4. Better management: Since the July 2003 rally, BJ has revamped its strategic management team by having more able people working on Hong Kong affairs. They are more confident that they can manage the PDC.
B. Test of wisdom and strength of the PDA
1. Moment of truth: Now that BJ is showing active signs of establishing regular communication with the PDC, the camp and its members have to respond positively. They know too that Hong Kong people want to see dialogue take place. There appears to be no conditions attached to the 1 October visit.
2. Worry about division: There would be no need to worry if the PDC can be clear that they are there to represent voters’ desire for earlier democratization and not every aspect of economic and social policies.
C. What we can expect - some observations
1. Etiquette briefings: Prior to their trips, the PDC sojourners will be ‘briefed’ by mainland officials and others on what to expect and gentle hints about behaviour.
2. Getting to know you: The occasion is a ‘getting to know you’ session among large crowds. There will be much handshaking and smiles.
3. Sussing out potential leaders: The PDC members will be closely observed by BJ for building long-term relations. BJ is interested to see who has leadership quality.
4. HK also watching: Hong Kong people are also interested to see who among the PDC will firstly gain the respect among those going to BJ as they are the HK team; and how the team behaves. The people want not to be let down so the pressure is on for a “HK Smile Campaign in Beijing”.
CHRISTINE LOH
Civic Exchange - HK’s independent think tank
www.civic-exchange.org