“See You Every Year” - 2 Jul, 2005

Demonstration for Democracy
Are Hong Kong people short-changed?

Dear Subscribers and Friends

A crowd turned out yesterday to protest even though an unpopular chief executive has gone, a more popular one has been installed, and the economy is much improved. The people should have been content to stay home on a hot and humid afternoon.


A. Numbers game? … That would be a pity

1. How many?: The organizers estimated 45,000 people took part, whereas the official estimate was around 20,000 [which seems low having been there myself]. The media today reported various numbers at the lower end.

2. Protest record: Hong Kong’s record in protest is impressive starting with the events leading up to 4 June 1989, where over a million people turned out. From then on, the issue of democracy never went away, culminating in 500-700,000 marching on 1 July 2003 over the imminent passage of national security legislation. People continued to protest throughout 2004 due to what they perceived as poor governance under the Tung Administration.

3. Too few?: Hong Kong unfortunately got into a habit of measuring levels of discontent via the number of protestors. On 1/7/04, when there were around 250,000 marchers, it was said that the people had become less interested in democracy compared to 2003. How should we read yesterday’s march?

B. Observations

1. Long history: Hong Kong people now has an undeniable clear and long history of demanding democracy going back to at least 1989.

2. Beijing unready: Hong Kong cannot move forward on universal and equal suffrage yet because Beijing is unready. It is more honest to admit the true reason rather than to say Hong Kong people have lost their interest in democracy based on how many show up at rallies.

3. Acute urgency: Hong Kong people’s record show that they show up in force when there is imminent danger that threatens their lifestyle, such as on 1/7/03 with the national security legislation, or 1/7/04 over poor governance. There is no acute danger on 1/7/05. A “hardcore” of 20,000+ is still quite impressive when the cards are so stacked against reform in the foreseeable future.

4. Marred celebration: From 1/7/03, Handover celebrations have been marred. The effort by the pro-government camp yesterday morning to muster their folks to join festivities was another attempt to dilute the impression of demands for change.

5. Tipping point?: May there nevertheless be a tipping point in favour of reform? The HKSAR Government under Donald Tsang at least had the good sense not to pretend the march didn’t matter yesterday by admitting it heard the message. The message from the 20,000+ was “See you next year and every year”.

CHRISTINE LOH
Civic Exchange - HK’s independent think tank
For other publications: www.civic-exchange.org