Intensifying Lobbying - 18 Dec, 2005

Intensifying lobbying
… last stroke - calls from Beijing?

Dear Subscribers & Friends

The LegCo debate for the Hong Kong government’s package of electoral reforms will start on 21/12/05.
Lobbying is intensifying like never before.

Who can swing 6 votes without giving a time table for universal suffrage?


A. The vote and the numbers

1. Motion: On 21/12, the government has tabled a motion to ask legislators to endorse its proposed reforms for the 2007-2008 elections. If passed, the motion can then be submitted to the Chief Executive (CE) for consent and thence for reporting to Beijing.

2. 2/3 majority: There must be a two-thirds majority of all 60 legislators to pass.

3. Numbers: The president said she would not vote on this motion. To get a two-thirds majority, the government needs 6 democrats to vote for the motion. There are a total of 26 democrats, who are saying so far they will vote against the package and are demanding a time table (2012) for universal suffrage.

B. Escalating lobbying

1. Tsang: CE Donald Tsang has been meeting legislators from the democratic camp to exert charm. He gave a televised public message that backfired just before the 4/12 march. On 15/12, he stood in a street corner in Central during lunch using a loud hailer to ask for the people’s support.

2. Ministers: All the ministers have declared their support.

3. Liberal Party: Its 10 legislators took out media ads with the slogan “Vote for Progress … Say ‘No’ to Standing Still” and started a phone/internet campaign.

4. Grand Coalition: Various pro-government groups, including the DAB and left-wing unions, formed the Grand Coalition Concerning Political Reform to collect signatures from the public.

5. Celebrities: Canto pop singers are doing 30 seconds promotions for the government, as are some business and community figures.

C. Making utmost effort …

1. Utmost effort: Tsang and his supporters must show they are making the utmost effort. They must create an atmosphere of support. With Anson Chan marching, they too must take to the street.

2. Signatures vs. Bodies: While it may be difficult to roll out 100,000-200,000 warm bodies to support the government’s package, supporters clearly want to get more than 200,000 signatures from people who voted for the DAB and FTU to show strong public support.

3. Surveys results: Various surveys done by academics show the greatest number of people want universal suffrage by 2012 although many are also resigned to accept the 2007-2008 package because they know Beijing tolds the key.

D. Observations … calls from Beijing?

1. Tactical: May the government may split the vote for the CE selection and LegCo if it finds this may get one part of it through?

2. Get others to lobby: Others are encouraged to contact the democrats by phone, emails, letters etc to help soften them.

3. What else?: Might top Beijing leaders make calls to targeted democrats by asking them what they can do for their country?

CHRISTINE LOH
Civic Exchange - HK’s independent think tank
For other publications: www.civic-exchange.org